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Crime Prevention Research Center: Carry Laws Don’t Increase Gun Theft, Decrease Police Effectiveness

Monday, July 8, 2024

Crime Prevention Research Center: Carry Laws Don’t Increase Gun Theft, Decrease Police Effectiveness

Gun-control groups campaign against right-to-carry laws by claiming that guns carried in public pose a substantial threat to public safety, and that concealed carry permitting laws lead to more violent crime, not less. Giffords, for instance, alleges that “the dangers of permissive public carry laws” include an increase in gun thefts and “other undesirable outcomes,” with absolutely no counterbalancing public safety benefits.

Professor Carl Moody and Dr. John Lott of the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) have just released an updated paper, How Does Concealed Carrying of Weapons Affect Violent Crime? (May 31, 2024). These researchers examined information related to claims that carry concealed weapons (CCW) laws indirectly increase violent crime by driving up firearm thefts or by decreasing police effectiveness. Using a unique new data set that employs the number of permit holders as the variable of interest, the authors found no evidence that CCW laws are associated with significant increases in gun thefts or impact the effectiveness of police.  

On gun thefts generally, an existing government source on how criminals obtain their firearms suggests that only a small amount of crime guns are acquired by theft. A Bureau of Justice Statistics report, Source and Use of Firearms Involved in Crimes: Survey of Prison Inmates, 2016 (Jan. 2019) shows that only 6.4% of state and federal prisoners who had possessed a firearm during the offense for which they were serving time listed “theft” (burglaries, thefts from retail sources or a family/friend, or “other”) as their gun source.

Previous literature from the CPRC indicates that CCW permit-holders are unlikely to be violent criminals – in fact, as a class they tend towards the extreme opposite end of the law-abiding spectrum. In jurisdictions where information on crimes and permits is available, it shows that permit-holders are less likely to drive recklessly or under the influence than non-permittees, and permit-holders are “convicted of firearms-related violations at one-twelfth the rate of police officers.”  

Professor Moody and Dr. Lott analyzed the theft question (whether CCW permit holders are a significant source of stolen guns beyond the amount expected due to the existing burglary rate) using variables that included the number of CCW permits (and a dummy variable for constitutional carry laws), the number of stolen guns, and the burglary rate as a control. “Stolen guns,” they conclude, “are apparently independent of CCW permits or permitless carrying.” The evidence revealed that neither the number of CCW permits nor the effect of constitutional carry laws had a significant impact on the rate at which guns are stolen. Constitutional carry states do not have significantly higher gun theft rates but, because most of the constitutional carry laws are relatively recent (since 2015), “it may be too early to draw any conclusions” on their impact.

The second issue examined was whether CCW permit-holders were associated with declines in police effectiveness, measured as the clearance rate of violent crimes. Variables included the clearance (arrest) rates and the number of crimes recorded for several given violent crimes types. Here, too, the analysis showed that “police effectiveness is unrelated to either the number of CCW permits and or existence of constitutional carry laws.”

These results confirm what many in the Second Amendment community know already – that despite all the spurious rationalizations advanced against lawful carrying, CCW permittees and others carrying responsibly are not the ones who threaten public safety or produce more crime.     

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Update: North Carolina House Reschedules Veto Override Vote

Tuesday, August 26, 2025

Update: North Carolina House Reschedules Veto Override Vote

Today, the House rescheduled the veto override vote on Senate Bill 50, Freedom to Carry NC, to Monday, September 22. 

Court Dismisses “Lawfare” Claims Against Maryland Gun Dealers

News  

Monday, February 24, 2025

Court Dismisses “Lawfare” Claims Against Maryland Gun Dealers

“Lawfare” is the misuse of the legal system to damage political or business opponents, either through frivolous lawsuits in which the cost of defending becomes too much to bear or through the pursuit of political ...

Arkansas Atrocity Highlights Need for Reform in Rules Governing Carry in Public Parks

News  

Monday, August 25, 2025

Arkansas Atrocity Highlights Need for Reform in Rules Governing Carry in Public Parks

On the heels of the shocking and seemingly random murder of a couple in an Arkansas state park while they were walking a trail with their young children, many are revisiting their self-defense plans in the great ...

Everytown Gun “Safety” Course—Step One: Don’t Own a Gun

News  

Monday, August 25, 2025

Everytown Gun “Safety” Course—Step One: Don’t Own a Gun

Our friends at the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) have reported that Everytown, an active and well-funded anti-gun organization, is now purporting to be branching out into teaching gun owners how to safely handle firearms.

Third Circuit Sua Sponte Takes NRA’s “Assault Firearm” and Magazine Ban Case En Banc

Wednesday, August 27, 2025

Third Circuit Sua Sponte Takes NRA’s “Assault Firearm” and Magazine Ban Case En Banc

Association of New Jersey Rifle & Pistol Clubs v. Attorney Gen. New Jersey is an NRA-supported challenge to New Jersey’s prohibitions on so-called “assault firearms” and magazines that can hold more than 10 rounds.

Florida: Second Amendment Sales Tax Holiday Signed by Governor

Monday, July 7, 2025

Florida: Second Amendment Sales Tax Holiday Signed by Governor

Governor Ron DeSantis recently signed the Florida Budget for Fiscal Year 2025–2026, which includes a Second Amendment sales tax holiday from September 8 through December 31, 2025. The NRA is thankful for Governor DeSantis’ strong ...

NRA Files Lawsuit Challenging Massachusetts’s “Assault-Style” Firearms Ban

Thursday, August 21, 2025

NRA Files Lawsuit Challenging Massachusetts’s “Assault-Style” Firearms Ban

Today, the National Rifle Association, Gun Owners’ Action League, Pioneer Valley Arms, three NRA members, and another individual filed a lawsuit challenging Massachusetts’s ban on “assault-style” firearms.

Florida Urges SCOTUS to Grant Cert in NRA’s Challenge to its Young Adult Purchase Ban and to Rule its Own Law Unconstitutional

Wednesday, August 20, 2025

Florida Urges SCOTUS to Grant Cert in NRA’s Challenge to its Young Adult Purchase Ban and to Rule its Own Law Unconstitutional

In May, the National Rifle Association petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court to hear NRA v. Glass, our challenge to Florida’s ban on firearm purchases by adults under 21.

Tenth Circuit Holds New Mexico’s 7-Day Waiting Period Unconstitutional in NRA Case

Tuesday, August 19, 2025

Tenth Circuit Holds New Mexico’s 7-Day Waiting Period Unconstitutional in NRA Case

Today, the Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals held New Mexico’s seven-day waiting period for firearm purchases unconstitutional in Ortega v. Grisham, a case brought by the National Rifle Association and Mountain States Legal Foundation, with the ...

Minnesota: Governor Tim Walz Signs Anti-Gun Bill Into Law

Friday, May 31, 2024

Minnesota: Governor Tim Walz Signs Anti-Gun Bill Into Law

On May 24th, Governor Tim Walz signed House File 5247, a large omnibus bill that included a provision that bans certain firearm triggers. The effective date for the trigger ban is set for January 1st ...

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Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.