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Crime Prevention Research Center: Carry Laws Don’t Increase Gun Theft, Decrease Police Effectiveness

Monday, July 8, 2024

Crime Prevention Research Center: Carry Laws Don’t Increase Gun Theft, Decrease Police Effectiveness

Gun-control groups campaign against right-to-carry laws by claiming that guns carried in public pose a substantial threat to public safety, and that concealed carry permitting laws lead to more violent crime, not less. Giffords, for instance, alleges that “the dangers of permissive public carry laws” include an increase in gun thefts and “other undesirable outcomes,” with absolutely no counterbalancing public safety benefits.

Professor Carl Moody and Dr. John Lott of the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) have just released an updated paper, How Does Concealed Carrying of Weapons Affect Violent Crime? (May 31, 2024). These researchers examined information related to claims that carry concealed weapons (CCW) laws indirectly increase violent crime by driving up firearm thefts or by decreasing police effectiveness. Using a unique new data set that employs the number of permit holders as the variable of interest, the authors found no evidence that CCW laws are associated with significant increases in gun thefts or impact the effectiveness of police.  

On gun thefts generally, an existing government source on how criminals obtain their firearms suggests that only a small amount of crime guns are acquired by theft. A Bureau of Justice Statistics report, Source and Use of Firearms Involved in Crimes: Survey of Prison Inmates, 2016 (Jan. 2019) shows that only 6.4% of state and federal prisoners who had possessed a firearm during the offense for which they were serving time listed “theft” (burglaries, thefts from retail sources or a family/friend, or “other”) as their gun source.

Previous literature from the CPRC indicates that CCW permit-holders are unlikely to be violent criminals – in fact, as a class they tend towards the extreme opposite end of the law-abiding spectrum. In jurisdictions where information on crimes and permits is available, it shows that permit-holders are less likely to drive recklessly or under the influence than non-permittees, and permit-holders are “convicted of firearms-related violations at one-twelfth the rate of police officers.”  

Professor Moody and Dr. Lott analyzed the theft question (whether CCW permit holders are a significant source of stolen guns beyond the amount expected due to the existing burglary rate) using variables that included the number of CCW permits (and a dummy variable for constitutional carry laws), the number of stolen guns, and the burglary rate as a control. “Stolen guns,” they conclude, “are apparently independent of CCW permits or permitless carrying.” The evidence revealed that neither the number of CCW permits nor the effect of constitutional carry laws had a significant impact on the rate at which guns are stolen. Constitutional carry states do not have significantly higher gun theft rates but, because most of the constitutional carry laws are relatively recent (since 2015), “it may be too early to draw any conclusions” on their impact.

The second issue examined was whether CCW permit-holders were associated with declines in police effectiveness, measured as the clearance rate of violent crimes. Variables included the clearance (arrest) rates and the number of crimes recorded for several given violent crimes types. Here, too, the analysis showed that “police effectiveness is unrelated to either the number of CCW permits and or existence of constitutional carry laws.”

These results confirm what many in the Second Amendment community know already – that despite all the spurious rationalizations advanced against lawful carrying, CCW permittees and others carrying responsibly are not the ones who threaten public safety or produce more crime.     

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Washington: Gun-Free Zone Expansion Bill Scheduled for Hearing on Tuesday

Friday, March 14, 2025

Washington: Gun-Free Zone Expansion Bill Scheduled for Hearing on Tuesday

On Tuesday, March 18th, the House Committee on Civil Rights & Judiciary will hold a public hearing on Senate Bill 5098, a gun-free zone expansion bill. The hearing has been set for 10:30AM.

NRA Statement on President Trump’s Executive Order Protecting Second Amendment Rights

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Second Amendment  

Friday, February 7, 2025

NRA Statement on President Trump’s Executive Order Protecting Second Amendment Rights

Today, the White House announced a new Executive Order to protect and expand the Second Amendment rights of all law-abiding Americans. This is the first action taken by President Donald J. Trump to carry through ...

Vermont: Crossover Day Defeats All Anti-Gun Bills for 2025

Friday, March 14, 2025

Vermont: Crossover Day Defeats All Anti-Gun Bills for 2025

Today, March 14th, is  the "crossover" deadline in the Vermont legislature. Bills that fail to advance out of the chamber of origin are considered "dead" for the session.

Oregon Court Of Appeals Reverses Lower Court Decision, Lifts Hold on Ballot Measure 114

Wednesday, March 12, 2025

Oregon Court Of Appeals Reverses Lower Court Decision, Lifts Hold on Ballot Measure 114

On Wednesday, March 12th, the Oregon Court of Appeals reversed a lower court decision that had declared unconstitutional Ballot Measure 114, which imposed a permit-to-purchase scheme and banned the possession of magazines capable of holding more than 10 rounds of ammunition. ...

MA Supreme Judicial Court Holds Old Nonresident Carry Licensing Scheme Unconstitutional But Upholds New Law

Wednesday, March 12, 2025

MA Supreme Judicial Court Holds Old Nonresident Carry Licensing Scheme Unconstitutional But Upholds New Law

On March 11, the Supreme Judicial Court of Massachusetts issued two decisions concerning the Commonwealth’s firearms carry licensing scheme for nonresidents.

New Mexico: Semi-Auto Ban Legislation Held Over in Committee Until Friday

Thursday, March 6, 2025

New Mexico: Semi-Auto Ban Legislation Held Over in Committee Until Friday

Yesterday the New Mexico Senate Judiciary Committee met to continue discussions on Senate Bill 279 (GoSAFE). The author did not accept the committee substitute to amend the near all-encompassing ban on semi-auto firearms with equally ...

California: Bill to Restrict Self Defense Withdrawn by Sponsor

Friday, March 14, 2025

California: Bill to Restrict Self Defense Withdrawn by Sponsor

On Wednesday afternoon, Assemblymember Zbur announced he is withdrawing Assembly Bill 1333 that would have restricted self-defense rights in California. The legislation, which was strongly supported by Everytown for Gun Safety and Moms Demand Action, ...

Oregon: Permit-to-Purchase and FFL-Killer Bills in Committee Next Week!

Friday, March 14, 2025

Oregon: Permit-to-Purchase and FFL-Killer Bills in Committee Next Week!

In the wake of this week's court decision on Ballot Measure 114, anti-gun radicals in the legislature intend to add insult to injury. 

New Mexico: Anti-Gun Extremists Introduce Sweeping Gun Ban

Wednesday, February 5, 2025

New Mexico: Anti-Gun Extremists Introduce Sweeping Gun Ban

As they have tried in the past, anti-gun radicals in the New Mexico Senate have introduced Senate Bill 279, the "GOSAFE Act," a near all-encompassing ban on semi-automatic and NFA firearms.

New Mexico: Senate Finance Staff Reviewing Semi-Auto Bill

Wednesday, March 12, 2025

New Mexico: Senate Finance Staff Reviewing Semi-Auto Bill

Yesterday, Senate Finance committee posted that their staff is reviewing SB 279 as a part of their Wednesday meeting. While this is not a formal hearing, this could be a decision point on whether Senate ...

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Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.