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Crime Prevention Research Center: Carry Laws Don’t Increase Gun Theft, Decrease Police Effectiveness

Monday, July 8, 2024

Crime Prevention Research Center: Carry Laws Don’t Increase Gun Theft, Decrease Police Effectiveness

Gun-control groups campaign against right-to-carry laws by claiming that guns carried in public pose a substantial threat to public safety, and that concealed carry permitting laws lead to more violent crime, not less. Giffords, for instance, alleges that “the dangers of permissive public carry laws” include an increase in gun thefts and “other undesirable outcomes,” with absolutely no counterbalancing public safety benefits.

Professor Carl Moody and Dr. John Lott of the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) have just released an updated paper, How Does Concealed Carrying of Weapons Affect Violent Crime? (May 31, 2024). These researchers examined information related to claims that carry concealed weapons (CCW) laws indirectly increase violent crime by driving up firearm thefts or by decreasing police effectiveness. Using a unique new data set that employs the number of permit holders as the variable of interest, the authors found no evidence that CCW laws are associated with significant increases in gun thefts or impact the effectiveness of police.  

On gun thefts generally, an existing government source on how criminals obtain their firearms suggests that only a small amount of crime guns are acquired by theft. A Bureau of Justice Statistics report, Source and Use of Firearms Involved in Crimes: Survey of Prison Inmates, 2016 (Jan. 2019) shows that only 6.4% of state and federal prisoners who had possessed a firearm during the offense for which they were serving time listed “theft” (burglaries, thefts from retail sources or a family/friend, or “other”) as their gun source.

Previous literature from the CPRC indicates that CCW permit-holders are unlikely to be violent criminals – in fact, as a class they tend towards the extreme opposite end of the law-abiding spectrum. In jurisdictions where information on crimes and permits is available, it shows that permit-holders are less likely to drive recklessly or under the influence than non-permittees, and permit-holders are “convicted of firearms-related violations at one-twelfth the rate of police officers.”  

Professor Moody and Dr. Lott analyzed the theft question (whether CCW permit holders are a significant source of stolen guns beyond the amount expected due to the existing burglary rate) using variables that included the number of CCW permits (and a dummy variable for constitutional carry laws), the number of stolen guns, and the burglary rate as a control. “Stolen guns,” they conclude, “are apparently independent of CCW permits or permitless carrying.” The evidence revealed that neither the number of CCW permits nor the effect of constitutional carry laws had a significant impact on the rate at which guns are stolen. Constitutional carry states do not have significantly higher gun theft rates but, because most of the constitutional carry laws are relatively recent (since 2015), “it may be too early to draw any conclusions” on their impact.

The second issue examined was whether CCW permit-holders were associated with declines in police effectiveness, measured as the clearance rate of violent crimes. Variables included the clearance (arrest) rates and the number of crimes recorded for several given violent crimes types. Here, too, the analysis showed that “police effectiveness is unrelated to either the number of CCW permits and or existence of constitutional carry laws.”

These results confirm what many in the Second Amendment community know already – that despite all the spurious rationalizations advanced against lawful carrying, CCW permittees and others carrying responsibly are not the ones who threaten public safety or produce more crime.     

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Report: Newsom Rejected Gifted Handgun Because California Law is Too Complicated

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Monday, July 28, 2025

Report: Newsom Rejected Gifted Handgun Because California Law is Too Complicated

In a video interview with Tennessee-based podcaster Shawn Ryan published earlier this month, anti-gun California Governor Gavin Newsom appeared to accept a gift of a Sig P365 XMACRO semi-automatic handgun from the former U.S. Navy ...

Sen. Murphy and Political Performance Art

News  

Monday, July 28, 2025

Sen. Murphy and Political Performance Art

Readers of our alerts know, very well, that U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) does not believe in the Second Amendment, and would probably like to see virtually every law-abiding American disarmed. And he has held ...

North Carolina: Pro-Gun Bills Advance in Veto Override Session

Tuesday, July 29, 2025

North Carolina: Pro-Gun Bills Advance in Veto Override Session

During a veto override session on Tuesday, July 29th, both chambers passed House Bill 193 (H193) and defeated Governor Josh Stein's veto.

From New York to Australia, the Law Doesn’t Always Back the Good Guys

News  

Monday, July 28, 2025

From New York to Australia, the Law Doesn’t Always Back the Good Guys

For decades, NRA-ILA has pointed out that gun control advocates are disingenuous when it comes to public safety. 

Ninth Circuit Strikes Down California’s Background Check Requirement for Ammunition Purchases in NRA Backed Case

Thursday, July 24, 2025

Ninth Circuit Strikes Down California’s Background Check Requirement for Ammunition Purchases in NRA Backed Case

The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that California’s law requiring a background check for each ammunition purchase violates the Second Amendment in Rhode v. Bonta—a case backed by the National Rifle Association and California Rifle ...

Rehabilitative Justice and the Anti-Gun Blind Spot

News  

Monday, July 28, 2025

Rehabilitative Justice and the Anti-Gun Blind Spot

Politics, they say, make for some strange bedfellows. Nicole Aloise, the Democrat running for the District Attorney (DA) job in New York’s Nassau County, has reportedly invited convicted criminals to apply for a full-time position on her ...

DOJ Issues “Relief From Disabilities” Rulemaking; Your Comments Urgently Needed!

News  

Monday, July 28, 2025

DOJ Issues “Relief From Disabilities” Rulemaking; Your Comments Urgently Needed!

On July 22, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) issued a proposed rule in response to the Trump administration’s intention to revive a statutory process for the restoration of Second Amendment rights lost under federal law as result of ...

Tax Relief Spurs Participation in Outdoor Recreation, Conservation Efforts

News  

Monday, July 28, 2025

Tax Relief Spurs Participation in Outdoor Recreation, Conservation Efforts

It’s well known that firearm owners, along with sportsmen and women, invest a lot of time, effort, and especially money into being good stewards of their Second Amendment rights and their love of the outdoors.

Florida: Second Amendment Sales Tax Holiday Signed by Governor

Monday, July 7, 2025

Florida: Second Amendment Sales Tax Holiday Signed by Governor

Governor Ron DeSantis recently signed the Florida Budget for Fiscal Year 2025–2026, which includes a Second Amendment sales tax holiday from September 8 through December 31, 2025. The NRA is thankful for Governor DeSantis’ strong ...

North Carolina: Update on Gun Bills Moving through the General Assembly

Tuesday, June 24, 2025

North Carolina: Update on Gun Bills Moving through the General Assembly

Recently, House Bill 193 (H193) was reported favorably out of both the Senate Judiciary Committee and the Senate Rules Committee, with amendments.

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Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.