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Cherry-Picking Statistics: How the Violence Policy Center Manipulates Data to Advance their Cause

Friday, January 26, 2018

Cherry-Picking Statistics: How the Violence Policy Center Manipulates Data to Advance their Cause

Last week, the Violence Policy Center shared their analysis of 2016 fatal injury statistics, which are released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and available for public analysis. VPC’s headline: “U.S. Gun Death Rate Jumps 17 Percent Since 2008 Supreme Court District of Columbia v. Heller Decision Affirming Right to Own a Handgun for Self-Defense.

That appears to suggest causation as if the Heller decision somehow has driven people to commit crime. The chart in the press release is even more disingenuous than the headline. Take another look.  A casual look at the chart gives the impression that the firearm death rate has skyrocketed – the marker went from near the bottom of the chart in 2014 almost all the way to the top! The axis runs from 10.0 to 12.5; this technique is commonly used to make numbers seem more dramatic. Take a look at the same data point – the overall firearm death rate in the U.S. – on a chart with a more honest axis.

Notice that the sharp increase presented by the Violence Policy Center is flatter when the axis hasn’t been manipulated to suit an agenda. Readers will also notice that this chart is not arbitrarily set to only post-Heller years but goes back to 1990; the longer trend line reveals some truths that the VPC would like to ignore. Total firearms-related death rates were higher through nearly all of the 1990s than they were in 2016.

One should also notice that the total firearms-related homicide rate continued a marginal and pre-existing downward trend after Heller, moving from 4.28 per 100,000 population in 2006 to 3.45 per 100k in 2014. A trend that directly contradicts the misleading headline touted by the Violence Policy Center.

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Monday, September 15, 2025

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Within six months of the landmark United States Supreme Court decision of NYSRPA v. Bruen (2022), Illinois disregarded the Court’s clear directives and enacted into law H.B. 5741, the Protect Illinois Communities Act (PICA). 

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Monday, September 15, 2025

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Monday, September 15, 2025

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Third Circuit Strikes Some New Jersey Carry Restrictions in NRA Case

Thursday, September 11, 2025

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Yesterday, the Third Circuit Court of Appeals issued an opinion in Siegel v. Platkin, striking some of the carry restrictions New Jersey enacted in response to the NRA’s landmark Supreme Court victory, New York State Rifle & ...

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Monday, September 8, 2025

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Pure gun control. As in disarmament and banning of firearms. It’s rare that anti-gunners get straight to the exact point that we have been warning of for decades. 

“Sensitive Places” Embolden Criminals and Threaten the Law-abiding

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Monday, September 15, 2025

“Sensitive Places” Embolden Criminals and Threaten the Law-abiding

A beyond horrific murder flashed before our eyes in recent weeks, and a nation collectively mourned Iryna Zarutska after the sickening attack that took her life on a public train in Charlotte, North Carolina

California: Legislature Adjourns with Anti-Gun Bills Headed to the Governor's Desk

Monday, September 15, 2025

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On Friday the California State Legislature adjourned the 2025 legislative session in typical California fashion, advancing anti-gun legislation to Governor Newsom's desk. Contact Governor Newsome today and urge his veto of AB 1078, AB 1127, AB ...

Due Process: The Backbone of Legal Legitimacy

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Monday, September 8, 2025

Due Process: The Backbone of Legal Legitimacy

Close observers of the gun debate often see references to due process.

The Desperate Deflection to the “Red State Murder Problem”

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Monday, September 8, 2025

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California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) may have thought he had scored against President Donald Trump in a recent war of words over rampant crime and the deployment of federal law enforcement agents to Democratic-led cities

Colorado: CSSA Files Suit Challenging "Polis Permission Slip" Permit-to-Purchase Law

Tuesday, September 9, 2025

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Last week, the Colorado State Shooting Association (CSSA), the official state affiliate of NRA, filed a lawsuit challenging Senate Bill 25-003...

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NRA ILA

Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.