Explore The NRA Universe Of Websites

APPEARS IN News

Manipulated Public Opinion Polling Should Not Drive Public Policy on Guns

Monday, October 3, 2022

Manipulated Public Opinion Polling Should Not Drive Public Policy on Guns

A recent study by the Crime Prevention Research Center underscored how easily public opinion polling can be used to distort, rather than illuminate, peoples’ true feelings on gun control. Policy-makers should take note.

Sound policy requires a thoughtful and sophisticated understanding of facts and evidence, not just the shifting whims of public perception.  Emotionalism, on the other hand, is the way anti-gun extremists would like to run our government.  Gun ban advocates constantly point to survey results they help manufacture – usually in the wake of some highly-charged incident, before all the facts are known – as justification for imposing draconian restrictions on our Second Amendment rights.

There are numerous reasons why over-reliance on opinion polling is a deeply flawed approach to good governance.

First, and foremost, the United States was not founded as a direct democracy, where the electorate votes on virtually every public policy issue.  We are, thankfully, a Constitutional Republic.  At the federal level, we elect people to represent us, and they deliberate policy issues and vote to implement them or reject them.  Should they consider public opinion polls when determining how they vote?  Of course they should consider them; but that should never be the beginning and the end of the analysis.

The problem with relying on public opinion polls is that, with complex or controversial issues, how the poll is conducted has a tremendous bearing on both how accurate it is in determining how people feel, and what the results of the poll actually mean.

Recent research out of the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), founded by Dr. John R. Lott, Jr., highlights the problem of relying on simplistic public opinion polls when considering complex policy proposals.

Lott, well known for his detailed, groundbreaking research on firearms and gun control laws, took a look at public opinion on one of the anti-gun movement’s favorite legislative proposals of the moment: “red flag” laws.  His results illustrate how dramatically opinions can shift when the same issue is presented in different ways.

Using the polling company McLaughlin & Associates, the CPRC surveyed 1,000 general election voters, asking whether they supported “red flag” laws if, the question explained, “their primary purpose is to allow judges to take away a person’s gun based on a single complaint when there is concern about that individual committing suicide.”  The responses indicated 58% support, and 30% opposition.

That “explanation” of how “red flag” laws work is, of course, a vast oversimplification, as the laws are far more complex.  Anti-gun organizations and the lawmakers who support their goals count on opinion polls avoiding details when it comes to questions about “gun control,” and would have preferred the survey stopped with just that oversimplification.

But Lott understands all this, and his survey followed up the initial question with the kind of detail the gun-ban movement hates.

The survey went on to ask, “Would you be more likely or less likely to support ‘Red Flag Laws’ if you knew there are no hearings before an individual’s guns are taken away and there are no mental health care experts involved in the process?”  After learning how most “red flag” laws work, support fell to 30%, and opposition rose to 47%.

In the more detailed breakdown of the results, Lott found that the greatest movement in the views of respondents came in the “Strongly Support” and “Strongly Oppose” categories.  “Strongly Support” fell by more than half when more specifics about “red flag” laws were included; plummeting from 34% with the first question, to 14% with the more detailed second question.  “Strongly Oppose,” meanwhile, climbed from 18% to 29%.

Of course, these kinds of results are not too surprising, and simply add credence to the old saying, “The devil is in the details.”

This survey also bolsters what Lott found to be true in an earlier poll:  When the public doesn’t have all the facts, it can lead to support for bad public policy.  Even worse than just not having all the facts, many, including the current president, affirmatively promote misinformation that can lead to people believing things that are demonstrably untrue.

In his constant war on the Second Amendment, Joe Biden has been trying to paint a picture about violent crime in America that blames everything on guns and their availability to law-abiding citizens.  And, to some extent, that has worked to confuse many Americans.

With Biden constantly disparaging the right to arms as part of his messaging on “combating crime,” and with most in the legacy media supporting and amplifying his messaging, what Americans think about violent crime is not actually true.

Lott found that the “average American likely voter” thinks “that over 46% of violent crime involve guns.”  Actual crime statistics show it is less than 8%.

Even with this wildly inaccurate view of the frequency with which firearms are involved in violent crime, Lott’s research indicates Americans are not exactly clamoring for more gun laws, in spite of what anti-gun extremists would have you believe.  His survey shows that only 21% of the respondents feel that more gun laws will “do more to help fight crime and keep people safe.”  The majority, at 52%, felt that the best solution would be to “focus on arrests,” while another 22% felt the best approach was to “enforce current laws.”

In other words, even without an accurate understanding of violent crime in America, the vast majority of Americans DO NOT support gun control as a response.  That is encouraging.

Another factor to consider, which is not addressed in the CPRC research mentioned here, is that, when asked if “more gun laws” would help, most Americans don’t even know what gun laws already exist.  Again, most Americans do not believe we need more gun laws, but of those that do, how much do they really know about current laws?  How can you justify asking for “more” when you don’t even know what is already there?

Polling, like other analytical and messaging tools, is neither good nor bad in itself.  When done with care and without bias, and with the necessary detail for more complex issues, polls can accurately gauge how Americans feel about any number of things.  Those results, in turn, can be used by policy makers to help guide their decisions; but the critical qualifiers in that statement are “with care and without bias” and “help.”  Opinion polls can never capture all the complexity of human understanding and sentiment and should never be used as the only input for determining what laws will govern us.

That said, the most critical poll for the future of the Second Amendment is fast approaching:  The 2022 Midterm Elections.  Some states have already begun Early Voting, and November 8, Election Day, will be here before you know it.  NRA has a number of online resources available to better ensure the pro-Second Amendment community is ready to work to elect a pro-gun majority in Congress that will derail the Biden Administration’s anti-gun agenda, and strip power from anti-gun extremists like Senator Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

Voter Registration Info

NRA-Political Victory Fund

Get Involved

IN THIS ARTICLE
Research Bias Polling
TRENDING NOW
Colorado: Mandatory Storage Bill Passes General Assembly and Semi-Auto Ban Temporarily Removed from Calendar

Tuesday, March 26, 2024

Colorado: Mandatory Storage Bill Passes General Assembly and Semi-Auto Ban Temporarily Removed from Calendar

In a temporary reprieve for Colorado gun owners, the semi-auto ban HB24-1292 has been removed from the calendar. But we cannot let our guard down as gun control advocates can bring it up for a vote at ...

The U.S. Supreme Court Looks at Government “Blacklists”

News  

Tuesday, March 26, 2024

The U.S. Supreme Court Looks at Government “Blacklists”

Much of the attention this past week in the United States Supreme Court was the oral arguments in National Rifle Association of America v. Vullo, No. 22-842, a First Amendment case on whether government officials ...

Colorado: Semi-Auto Ban Passes Committee and Sensitive Places Bill Hearing Rescheduled for Today!

Wednesday, March 20, 2024

Colorado: Semi-Auto Ban Passes Committee and Sensitive Places Bill Hearing Rescheduled for Today!

Yesterday the House Judiciary Committee held a hearing on House Bill 24-1292, the semi-auto ban, that lasted over 12 hours where hundreds of patriotic Coloradans overloaded the committee with opposition testimony. The hearing concluded with an ...

NRA Files Amicus Brief Asking Supreme Court to Hear Antonyuk v. James

News  

Second Amendment  

Monday, March 25, 2024

NRA Files Amicus Brief Asking Supreme Court to Hear Antonyuk v. James

In response to the NRA’s victory in Bruen, which secured every American’s right to carry arms, NY passed the “Concealed Carry Improvement Act,” severely restricting carry throughout the state. The 2nd Circuit upheld many of ...

25 years and one PLCAA Later, Chicago is Still Harassing Gunmakers

News  

Tuesday, March 26, 2024

25 years and one PLCAA Later, Chicago is Still Harassing Gunmakers

On March 19, the city of Chicago filed suit against handgun manufacturer Glock. Seeking to shift responsibility for the city’s woeful governance, Chicago’s lawsuit blames the popular firearm manufacturer for the third-party criminal misuse of ...

Washington: Governor Signs Anti-Gun Legislation

Wednesday, March 27, 2024

Washington: Governor Signs Anti-Gun Legislation

Today, Governor Inslee signed five anti-gun bills into law that were recently passed by the Washington State Legislature. The bills include:

Anti-gun Democrats Seek to Undermine Law Passed to Protect Veterans’ Rights

News  

Tuesday, March 19, 2024

Anti-gun Democrats Seek to Undermine Law Passed to Protect Veterans’ Rights

Last week we reported on a major breakthrough on behalf of veterans who risked losing their Second Amendment rights because of a long-running scheme by the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) to report certain beneficiaries ...

Colorado: Semi-Auto Ban Scheduled for Floor Vote Today!

Thursday, March 21, 2024

Colorado: Semi-Auto Ban Scheduled for Floor Vote Today!

Today, the House is scheduled to vote on HB24-1292, the ban on semi-automatic firearms. Please contact your legislators today by using the button below and urge them to OPPOSE HB24-1292!

Louisiana: Firearms Bills on the Move - Take Action Now!

Monday, March 25, 2024

Louisiana: Firearms Bills on the Move - Take Action Now!

A number of firearm-related bills, including enhanced preemption, are moving in the Louisiana Legislature. It's critical that NRA members and Second Amendment supporters get involved to keep the momentum going!

Pennsylvania: Senate Committee Passes Full Inclusion Sunday Hunting

Wednesday, March 20, 2024

Pennsylvania: Senate Committee Passes Full Inclusion Sunday Hunting

On Wednesday, the Senate Game & Fisheries Committee voted 7-4 to pass Senate Bill 67 to the Senate floor for a vote. 

MORE TRENDING +
LESS TRENDING -

More Like This From Around The NRA

NRA ILA

Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.