Homicide rates in the United States, including those where firearms are used, have been declining over the last few years. According to multiple reports on early projections, 2025 is expected to see the largest decline in homicides in the U.S. ever recorded, with some estimating a roughly 20% drop. And if you believed the false narrative from anti-gun extremists that the simple existence of firearms causes violent crime, you would think that gun ownership has also decreased.
But all indications are that, not only are there far more firearms in the hands of law-abiding citizens than ever, it is also likely that there are far more law-abiding gun owners in America than ever before.
We’re talking tens-of-millions by some estimates.
The legal sale of firearms surged greatly during the COVID Era, and sales have remained robust. Lawrence Keane, the Senior Vice President for Government and Public Affairs of the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), had an article on AmmoLand earlier this year that noted “As Gun Ownership Surges, Murder Rates Fall.” Following the correlation v causation caveat, Keane wrote:
This is not a claim that guns “cause” crime to fall. Crime is driven by offender behavior, enforcement, prosecution and local conditions. But it is a direct rebuttal to the overly simplistic gun control talking point that increases in lawful gun ownership will absolutely increase murder and firearm violence.
That’s not to say that one cannot argue firearms in the hands of law-abiding citizens contributes to lowering violent crime rates. Whether it is criminals choosing to not commit a crime because they feel their intended victim may be armed, or actual intended victims thwarting an attempted crime by introducing their self-defense firearm into the situation, many, including NRA, strongly believe in the deterrent effect armed citizens have when it comes to crime.
In any case, crime is decreasing as firearms proliferate and as the Trump administration (as we report elsewhere this week) has taken unprecedented action to support Americans’ Second Amendment rights. And it’s not just homicides that are decreasing. Most categories of violent crime in major cities fell in 2025, according to reports from the Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA) and the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ).
While the numbers from each source may not be precisely coincide, positive trends are indicated in several categories. MCCA indicated significant decreases in homicide (19.3%), robbery (19.8%), aggravated assault (9.7%), and rape (8.8%). CCJ also reported decreases in homicide (21%), robbery (23%), and aggravated assault (9%), but no significant change in rape and other types of sexual assault.
MCCA’s data comes from 67 agencies, while CCA includes 40 large American cities. Differences in methods of reporting and discrepancies in how some crimes are classified, or even the omission of some crime categories by some agencies, likely explains the differences in the reports of the two organizations. While final national numbers tracked by the FBI have yet to be released for 2025, we anticipate they will follow the reported trends we have seen thus far.
Another source, the Real-Time Crime Index, is an online project that follows crime trends, and it showed a 19.8% drop in murder when comparing January to October numbers from both 2024 and 2025.
It also estimates are that all violent crime will show a decrease of around 9% in 2025, including a decline in rapes of about 6%, robbery 16%, and aggravated assault around 8%.
In spite of these positive trends, those dedicated to disarming American citizens have continued, unabated, to scream for more anti-gun laws, including banning the most popular semi-automatic firearms and magazines; increasing restrictions on acquiring, possessing, and carrying firearms; and allowing firearms to be seized from gun owners without due process.
Sadly, perhaps the strongest case in point for the contradictory call for more restrictions on law-abiding gun owners (who do not drive violent crime rates) in the face of declining violent crime (including those involving firearms) is Virginia—home of not just NRA Headquarters, but also that of numerous Founding Fathers who not just enshrined the Second Amendment into our Constitution, but risked their lives for the ability to do so.
We have been reporting on the legislative assaults on gun owners in the Old Dominion for several months. Current Governor Abigail Spanberger (D) deceived voters by campaigning as a moderate, then immediately pivoted to her true position as an anti-gun extremist once she was elected. As most readers know, under her guidance, Virginia has put into place, or is poised to, new laws this year that impose Draconian restrictions on our right to arms.
The centerpiece of these legislative efforts would ban the future acquisition of overwhelmingly popular semi-automatic firearms and magazines that hold more than 15 rounds. NRA is gearing up to challenge these proposals’ constitutionality.
But Spanberger also signed a bill designed to create loopholes in the federal Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act (PLCAA)—a law meant to protect the firearms industry from being driven into bankruptcy under the crushing financial burden of frivolous lawsuits. The Supreme Court held unanimously last year that foreign governments could not circumvent the PLCAA protections, but now Virginia is joining states like New York with attempts to do just that.
At the same time, Virginia’s Democrat governor signed legislation seeking to undermine the PLCAA, she signed another bill that seeks to end the centuries-old practice of individuals building lawful firearms for personal use without government interference.
Spanberger has also signed bills into law that set age restrictions on certain law-abiding adults and what firearms they may lawfully purchase, as well as expanding restrictions on the carrying or transportation of certain firearms on public property.
As is almost always the case, the raft of new anti-gun laws in Virginia will only affect law-abiding gun owners, as criminals will continue to ignore these laws much as they do the other laws that make them criminals.
Anyone involved in the efforts to defend the Second Amendment knows that, besides the argument that the Constitution prohibits most laws that restrict law-abiding gun owners, the simple fact is that gun control has never been shown to stop criminals from committing violent crime. Nor, on the other hand, do guns in law-abiding hands increase the incidence of crime.
That said, although national trends show violent crime falling, maybe Virginia is different, and that’s why Spanberger and her anti-gun allies in the Virginia General Assembly chose to go after law-abiding gun owners? Maybe Virginia’s violent crime has been on the rise?
No, Virginia is not an outlier. In fact, historically, Virginia’s violent crime rate is generally lower than the US average. In 2024, Virginia saw a decrease in all violent crime categories, and the overall decrease in violent crime for Virginia was better than the national average.
Of course, even if violent crime were trending up in Virginia, that still would not justify added restrictions on law-abiding gun owners, as they do not drive increases in violent crime. That is always driven by violent criminals, and as any criminologist will tell you, repeat offenders commit a disproportionate number of violent crimes when compared to the general population.
Nonetheless, Spanberger and her ilk will continue to go after law-abiding gun owners, even when crime is trending downward during a surge in new law-abiding gun owners. That, of course, is because she and her supporters are not concerned with violent crime. Disarming as many citizens as possible is their true goal.
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