Crime | Criminal Justice

December 2021

Gun Ownership and Crime Trends

• For decades, gun control activists have predicted that crime will increase as more people own more guns or burdensome restrictions on gun rights are repealed. The opposite has been true. Americans own more firearms and Americans in more states can lawfully carry a concealed firearm than they could decades ago but crime rates have fallen significantly.
• In 2019, the violent crime rate fell to the 2^nd lowest total rate since 1971 and the murder rate was less than half of what it was at the 1980 peak. The two lowest violent crime rates of the last 48 years were 2014 and 2019.[1]
• The violent crime rate has decreased 52% from the 1991 all-time high. Americans have acquired more than 215 million new firearms in the same time period – more than doubling the number of privately-owned firearms in the United States.[2]
• As violent crime has decreased, the number of Right-to-Carry (RTC) states and the number of people who carry guns for protection away from home have risen to all-time highs.
• Every state now has a system allowing residents to obtain a concealed carry permit. There are 42 RTC states, more than 19.48 million people with carry permits, and data shows that permit holders are statistically more law-abiding than the general public.[3]
• Women and minorities are the fastest growing concealed carry permit holder populations, and the number of female permit holders are increasing faster than male permit holders among every ethnic or racial group for which data is available.[4]
• People who use guns to defend against robbery and aggravated assault are less likely to be injured than people who use other means, or no means, of self-defense.
• A 1986 survey of felons for the federal government found that 40% had not committed one or more crimes because they feared that their prospective victims were armed. Thirty-four percent of criminals had been scared off, shot at, wounded, or captured by an armed victim.[5]

It’s an article of faith among gun control supporters that more guns will bring about more crime. For example, in the mid-1970s, the Brady Campaign, campaigning for a ban on handguns,[6] predicted: “There are now 40 million handguns owned by private individuals in the United States—about one gun for every American family. At the present rate of proliferation, the number could build to 100 million by the year 2000 (which isn’t as far off as you think). The consequences can be terrible to imagine—unless something is done.”[7] In 1979, when the group was known as Handgun Control, Inc., it updated its prediction, saying, “Right now over 50 million HANDGUNS flood the houses and streets of our nation. . . . HANDGUN production and sales are out of control.”[8]Gun control supporters have made similar doomsday predictions about Right-to-Carry laws, “assault weapons,” and “large capacity” ammunition magazines.[9]

More Guns—Since the early 1990s, the number of privately-owned firearms has more than doubled, from about 192 million to more than 405 million - including more than 167 million handguns.[10] Americans acquire roughly 10 million new firearms annually. More than 19.48 million Americans have carry permits.[11] The AR-15 is the most popular firearm in the country, and the number of these firearms Americans own has increased from several hundred thousand to nearly 18 million.[12] The number of so-called “large capacity” magazines - the regular magazines used in rifles like the AR-15 and in semi-automatic handguns designed for self-defense – numbered in the tens of millions decades ago and, today, are so common that the number in circulation is seemingly incalculable. 

Despite gun control supporters’ predictions, murder and total violent crime have decreased by more than half since 1991. In 2014, total violent crime fell to a 44-year low, murder to an all-time low.[13] The rate in 2019 was slightly higher than in 2014 but still the 2^nd lowest violent crime rate since 1971.

Less gun control – Over the last quarter-century, many federal, state, and local gun control laws have been eliminated or made less restrictive. The federal “assault weapon” ban, upon which gun control supporters claimed public safety depended, expired in 2004. The violent crime rate last year was 21% lower than it was in 2004 and the murder rate was more than 9% lower.

The federal handgun waiting period, for years a priority for gun control supporters, expired in 1998 in favor of the NRA-supported national Instant Check and the murder rate has since dropped 20%. Accordingly, some states have eliminated obsolete waiting periods and purchase permit requirements.

Every state allows residents to lawfully carry a concealed firearm. Twenty-one states do not generally require a permit to lawfully carry a concealed firearm. Eight states retain some discretion over who can obtain a permit, and the remaining states are shall-issue states: any law-abiding resident who meets the established requirements can obtain a permit to carry a concealed firearm.

All states have hunter protection laws, 48 have range protection laws, 45 explicitly prohibit local gun laws more restrictive than state law, 44 protect the right to arms in their constitutions, and 33 have “castle doctrine” laws protecting the right to use guns in self-defense.

Crime Trends

The interactive visualization below displays historical crime data going back to 1960 (or 1965 for the state of New York). The violent crime rate includes homicide, aggravated assault, robbery, and rape. The FBI definition of rape was changed in 2012 (taking effect January 1, 2013). The revised definition of rape is utilized in total violent crime calculation beginning in 2013. Prior to 2013, the legacy definition of rape was used. For more information on the definition change, see the FBI's Rape Addendum in the 2013 Crime in the United States report.[14]

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