Explore The NRA Universe Of Websites

APPEARS IN News

Anti-Gun Research Methods: Whatever It Takes

Friday, March 30, 2018

Anti-Gun Research Methods: Whatever It Takes

Background checks are one of the most common proposals to address firearm-involved homicides. Universal and/or expanded background checks are always high on the list of anti-gun groups’ proposals. But what does the research say?

The Rand Corporation’s review of firearms-related research found that dealer background checks may decrease firearms homicides but ruled the effect of private-seller background checks uncertain (based on inconclusive evidence). We discussed the Rand review earlier this month, but wanted to highlight again these findings and revisit an example of the steps anti-gun researchers will take to produce their desired findings.  

Rand determined that waiting periods have an uncertain effect on violent crime and intimate partner homicide. Last October, we reviewed a study conducted by a team from Harvard Business School that claimed handgun waiting periods reduce gun deaths. We noted several crucial concerns with their variable selections (or rather, exclusions). 

What we did not include in our initial article was a finding the researchers left out of their discussion. According to their models, background checks are associated with an increase in homicides. These coefficients were not statistically significant but do suggest their model is misspecified. The model produced the desired finding – that waiting periods reduce gun deaths – but did so at the cost of background checks, which they indicate increase all homicides and all suicides, as well as both firearms-related and non-firearms related homicides and suicides.

That doesn’t seem right. It also doesn’t mesh with the conclusions of the Rand review. Of course, the researchers don’t discuss their strange coefficient on background checks and media coverage of their paper focused almost exclusively on the headline. This was not the first-time anti-gun researchers have hand-selected findings to present and discuss, and we doubt it will be the last.

Remember the Kellerman study we often mention? It was funded by the CDC, was rife with methodological flaws, reached questionable conclusions, and yet is still regularly cited and referenced by pundits, politicians, and anti-gun organizations. Take a look at the table showing the final model output from the Kellerman study:

No one (except us and like-minded allies) ever mentions that the real “findings” of the Kellerman study are that renting a home or living alone are both higher risk factors than keeping a firearm in the home. Doctors want to opine about gun ownership, use, and storage but we’ve never heard of one referring anyone to a roommate finder or first-time homebuyer programs. Keeping a firearm in the home was actually the 2nd lowest risk factor in the model, but Kellerman and others only want to talk about firearms. 

Anti-gun researchers, their benefactors, and adoring media never let questionable model specification or odd findings undermine their predetermined outcome. There is an old saying in statistics: “all models are wrong, but some are useful.” Anti-gun researchers seem to take this as a green light to do whatever it takes to produce a “useful” model. 

TRENDING NOW
Declassified Document: Biden-Harris Administration Targeted Gun Owners and Second Amendment Rights Under “Domestic Terrorism” Pretext

News  

Monday, April 21, 2025

Declassified Document: Biden-Harris Administration Targeted Gun Owners and Second Amendment Rights Under “Domestic Terrorism” Pretext

On April 16, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard made good on a promise to expose the ways in which the Biden administration had weaponized the federal government against its political adversaries by releasing the Biden-era “Strategic Implementation Plan ...

Trump Administration Revives Federal Firearm Rights Restoration Provision

News  

Friday, March 21, 2025

Trump Administration Revives Federal Firearm Rights Restoration Provision

On March 20, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) published an interim final rule entitled, Withdrawing the Attorney General’s Delegation of Authority. That bland title belies the historic nature of the measure, which is aimed at reviving ...

Trump DOJ Creates Second Amendment Task Force to Undo Damage of Biden Era

News  

Monday, April 14, 2025

Trump DOJ Creates Second Amendment Task Force to Undo Damage of Biden Era

Last week, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) formally announced the creation of a Second Amendment Task Force with Attorney General Pam Bondi declaring, “It is the policy of the Department of Justice to use its full ...

Federal Court in Massachusetts Enforces Range Access Statute in Pathbreaking Case

News  

Monday, April 21, 2025

Federal Court in Massachusetts Enforces Range Access Statute in Pathbreaking Case

It has happened before in Massachusetts: A small, hardy band of armed Americans faces off against elements of the most powerful military in the world and commits a revolutionary act that paves the way for ...

Germany Strips “Extremist” AfD Members, Supporters of Gun Licenses, Guns

News  

Monday, April 14, 2025

Germany Strips “Extremist” AfD Members, Supporters of Gun Licenses, Guns

It’s been only a few years since the San Francisco Board of Supervisors passed a resolution calling the NRA a “domestic terrorist organization.” 

DOJ Drops Controversial NFA Charge Against Pardoned Jan. 6 Protestor

News  

Monday, April 21, 2025

DOJ Drops Controversial NFA Charge Against Pardoned Jan. 6 Protestor

Last February, NRA-ILA’s reporting exposed the case of Taylor Taranto, a pardoned January 6 protestor separately arrested on firearm charges in Washington, D.C. 

Canadian Appeals Court Upholds 2020 Gun Bans – “Reasonable” and “Rationally Connected to a Legitimate Objective”

News  

Monday, April 21, 2025

Canadian Appeals Court Upholds 2020 Gun Bans – “Reasonable” and “Rationally Connected to a Legitimate Objective”

On March 9, when Mark Carney was selected to replace Justin Trudeau as Canada’s Prime Minister and the new Liberal Party leader, he ignored the opportunity the situation presented to jettison his predecessor’s useless and expensive “assault-style ...

Colorado: Governor Polis Signs More Gun Control into Law

Monday, April 21, 2025

Colorado: Governor Polis Signs More Gun Control into Law

Continuing the trend of this legislative session, Governor Jared Polis has signed two more gun control bills into law: House Bill 25-1238 and House Bill 25-1133.  

Legal Update: April 2025 Litigation Update

Monday, April 21, 2025

Legal Update: April 2025 Litigation Update

In the first quarter of 2025, the National Rifle Association filed three new lawsuits and five amicus briefs, while continuing to litigate dozens of ongoing lawsuits across the country.

Washington: Permit to Purchase Bill Passes Senate

Tuesday, April 15, 2025

Washington: Permit to Purchase Bill Passes Senate

On Monday, April 14th, the Senate passed House Bill 1163, the permit-to-purchase scheme, along party lines. It will now return to the House for concurrence with amendments made in the Senate. NRA members must urge ...

MORE TRENDING +
LESS TRENDING -

More Like This From Around The NRA

NRA ILA

Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.