Explore The NRA Universe Of Websites

APPEARS IN News

Hypothesis or Hyperbole Gun Control Researchers Balk at Betting on Gun Control

Tuesday, May 30, 2023

Hypothesis or Hyperbole Gun Control Researchers Balk at Betting on Gun Control

Dr. John Lott, Jr., a leading researcher and founder of the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), recently embarked on an unusual personal experiment: how many pro-gun control academics would literally bet in favor of their own findings, using Brazil as a case study?

What sparked the inquiry were the predictions in the wake of changes to Brazils laws on private gun ownership following the election of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva last October. Lulas predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, had campaigned on a pro-gun platform and, once elected, relaxed gun laws, with the result that legal gun ownership increased six-fold during his term. In contrast, Lulas first act as president was a radical executive order to roll back these changes, with new restrictions on gun owners and the acquisition of firearms and ammunition. Now, they predict that Lulas severe crackdown on gun ownership will reduce crime.”

Brazil offers a unique research opportunity because, as Lott notes, many American gun control advocates discount the evidence of increased murder rates following the implementation of local gun ban laws, on the basis that the ban could only work if the entire country instituted the same rules.” Brazil represents such a country-wide case” in which to explore the strength of this less guns, less crime” hypothesis.  

Lott contacted twelve prominent researchers and professors with a put-your-money-where-your-hype-is challenge. Lets bet $1,000 and make it simple on whether the homicide rate in Brazil will go up or down during the first two years of Lulas presidency. If the homicide rate goes down from what it was in 2022, I will pay you $1,000. If it goes up, you will pay me $1,000.”

A Washington Post article on Brazilian gun ownership, published weeks after Lula was elected, referred to research in America showing a strong correlation between gun ownership and homicide rates, suicides, accidental shootings and shootings by law enforcement,” and cited Johns Hopkins professor Daniel Webster: Every 1 percent increase in firearm ownership is associated with a 0.6 percent increase in overall homicide rates and a 0.9 percent increase in firearm homicide rates.” Webster called the belief that arming more civilians makes society safer a fantasy that is put forward by the gun lobby’ – [that] is not grounded in any data.” Nonetheless, the article admits that Brazils homicide rate had fallen more than 27 percent since 2017.”

This echoed a 2019 NPR article on Bolsonaros election, which quoted a different expert on data-driven and evidence-based security.” According to him, [i]n Brazil, a 1 percent rise in firearm availability increases the homicide rate by 2 percent,” and that [v]irtually without exception, more guns equals more violence. Studies from the U.S. and around the world consistently show increases in firearm ownership and carrying are positively correlated with increases in homicide and suicide.” Interestingly, the correlation formulas” cited in both articles include no qualifications, being presented without conditions or parameters, and both contain a flat denial of the possibility that increased access to legal guns could have a positive impact on individual safety.    

According to Lott, applying Professor Websters formula should have resulted in a 360% increase in the homicide rate in Brazil, based on a 600% increase in gun ownership during the relevant time, instead of which the rate declined each consecutive year, dropping by 34% in 2021. (Applying the formula in the NPR article yields an even more exquisitely inaccurate prediction of a 1,200% jump in the homicide rate.) 

Daniel Webster currently the Bloomberg professor of American Health affiliated with Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Violence Solutions – was one of the dozen U.S. academics that Lott contacted (the NPR source was not in the group contacted). Lott reports that seven out of the twelve failed to respond to his emailed offer, and none of the twelve actually accepted his wager.

Of course, evidence on the risks and benefits of firearms is complicated and correlation is not causation, but the terms of Lotts offer were straightforward: Given the importance you put on gun control and the large percentage change in gun ownership that Lula is imposing, you should expect a substantial drop in homicides, but, as I say, lets keep it simple on whether the homicide rate goes up or down.”

At the time of writing, not a single individual was daring enough or curious enough to throw in and place his research on the line, even when they claim the odds are so much in their favor. (Our own prediction is that the amount of the bet was irrelevant: the result would stand even if the amount wagered was a penny or a peppercorn.) The saying is that knowledge is power, so this outcome, while disappointing, still represents something of a victory for Lott.

 “These academics have no problem confidently making predictions for the press or legislative committees about the future effects of gun-control laws,” writes Lott. But they arent willing to put their money where their mouths are in a way that would make people remember their bad predictions. Maybe thats because they already know the crime-fighting benefits of private gun ownership.”

There may be further developments with this experiment. The CPRCs May 20 newsletter includes an invitation from Lott to let me know if you have any suggestions on other prominent gun control advocate academics who should be approached.” Stay tuned.

IN THIS ARTICLE
John Lott Brazil
TRENDING NOW
Third Circuit Strikes Some New Jersey Carry Restrictions in NRA Case

Thursday, September 11, 2025

Third Circuit Strikes Some New Jersey Carry Restrictions in NRA Case

Yesterday, the Third Circuit Court of Appeals issued an opinion in Siegel v. Platkin, striking some of the carry restrictions New Jersey enacted in response to the NRA’s landmark Supreme Court victory, New York State Rifle & ...

Gun Control “Journalist” Says the Quiet Part Out Loud

News  

Monday, September 8, 2025

Gun Control “Journalist” Says the Quiet Part Out Loud

Pure gun control. As in disarmament and banning of firearms. It’s rare that anti-gunners get straight to the exact point that we have been warning of for decades. 

Due Process: The Backbone of Legal Legitimacy

News  

Monday, September 8, 2025

Due Process: The Backbone of Legal Legitimacy

Close observers of the gun debate often see references to due process.

The Desperate Deflection to the “Red State Murder Problem”

News  

Monday, September 8, 2025

The Desperate Deflection to the “Red State Murder Problem”

California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) may have thought he had scored against President Donald Trump in a recent war of words over rampant crime and the deployment of federal law enforcement agents to Democratic-led cities

NRA Files Amicus Brief Urging SCOTUS to Hear Challenge to Washington’s Magazine Ban

Monday, September 8, 2025

NRA Files Amicus Brief Urging SCOTUS to Hear Challenge to Washington’s Magazine Ban

Today, the National Rifle Association filed an amicus brief urging the U.S. Supreme Court to grant certiorari in a case challenging Washington State’s ban on firearm magazines that hold more than 10 rounds.

Illinois: Governor Signs Mandatory Firearm Storage Law

Wednesday, September 3, 2025

Illinois: Governor Signs Mandatory Firearm Storage Law

Earlier this month, Governor JB Pritzker signed Senate Bill 8 into law. This legislation imposes new mandatory firearm storage requirements on law-abiding gun owners.  

Update: North Carolina House Reschedules Veto Override Vote

Tuesday, August 26, 2025

Update: North Carolina House Reschedules Veto Override Vote

Today, the House rescheduled the veto override vote on Senate Bill 50, Freedom to Carry NC, to Monday, September 22. 

Supreme Court Review Sought in NRA-Backed Challenge to California’s Magazine Ban

Friday, August 15, 2025

Supreme Court Review Sought in NRA-Backed Challenge to California’s Magazine Ban

Today, a Petition for Certiorari was filed asking the U.S. Supreme Court to hear Duncan v. Bonta, a case—backed by the National Rifle Association and California Rifle & Pistol Association—challenging California’s prohibition on magazines capable of holding ...

Minnesota: Senate Gun Violence Prevention Working Group Meeting on Monday

Friday, September 12, 2025

Minnesota: Senate Gun Violence Prevention Working Group Meeting on Monday

On Monday, September 15th, the Minnesota Senate will hold a special working group on "gun violence prevention."

Washington Post Admits that Anti-gun Lawfare “Cannot be the Solution” to Crime

News  

Monday, March 17, 2025

Washington Post Admits that Anti-gun Lawfare “Cannot be the Solution” to Crime

In a turnabout worthy of Invasion of the Body Snatchers, The Washington Post (WAPO) published an editorial last Tuesday criticizing the gun control movement for ignoring the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act (PLCAA) and pursuing its agenda in ...

MORE TRENDING +
LESS TRENDING -

More Like This From Around The NRA

NRA ILA

Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.