Explore The NRA Universe Of Websites

APPEARS IN News

The Trace Got Something Right

Friday, October 5, 2018

The Trace Got Something Right

Earlier this week, FiveThirtyEight collaborated with The Trace to report that the CDC is publishing unreliable data on nonfatal firearms injuries.

Fatal firearms injury data from the CDC is based on death certificates. Nonfatal injury data is collected through a survey conducted by the Consumer Product Safety Commission. The survey is small – only 100 out of 5,534 registered hospitals are surveyed and only 66 provide the relevant data. That is less than 2% of all hospitals in the country.  The results are harrowing.

“The agency’s most recent figures include a worrying uptick: Between 2015 and 2016, the number of Americans nonfatally injured by a firearm jumped by 37 percent, rising from about 85,000 to more than 116,000. It was the largest single-year increase recorded in more than 15 years.”

This trend is at odds with the trend from four other estimates of the number of non-fatal firearms-related injuries based on hospitalization and crime data. This means that the CDC nonfatal injury data is completely unreliable – as the CDC itself admits. Noted anti-gun researcher David Hemenway is quoted as saying, “No one should trust the CDC’s nonfatal firearm injury point estimates.” This analysis is too late for the 50 or more academic papers since 2010 that have used CDC estimates on nonfatal firearms injuries.

The Consumer Product Safety Commission responded to the authors’ questions by claiming, “Although visually, the [CDC] estimates for firearm-related assaults appear to be increasing from 2015 to 2016, there is not a statistically significant difference between the estimates.” There’s so much variance in the data that the true number of nonfatal firearms injuries for 2016 is, with 95% probability, somewhere between 46,524 and 186,304. As Hemenway said, “Basically, the confidence intervals are enormous. So you have no idea about trends.”

The survey is ripe for such problems, given its small sample size. Variations across regions can strongly shift the estimate in one direction or another. Hospitals near high-crime neighborhoods in Baltimore or Chicago likely see more nonfatal gunshot injuries than hospitals in rural Vermont. The estimate is based off the hospitals that participate, and so can be easily skewed.

While The Trace should be commended for this analysis, the opportunity to complain about the lack of federal funding for “gun violence research” was too much to pass up. They note that the Dean of the Boston University School of Public Health believes we have “lost a generation of firearms research” and cite several articles bemoaning the state of “gun violence research.” 

We’d like to point out that thousands of studies related to guns, crime, and violence have been conducted in the last 20 years. Not all of the research passes methodological muster, some is clearly biased in addition to being seriously flawed, anti-gun researchers acknowledged federal funding isn’t an obstacle for such research in Science magazine, and the federal government spent more $11 million in grants funding gun violence research between 2014 and 2017.

There are important questions in the wake of this analysis. Perhaps chief among them, why is the Consumer Product Safety Commission running this survey for the CDC when other sources are gathering similar data? We’d wager that hospitals across the country have precise counts of their patients’ ills. Hospitals tend to keep track of their patients. In many states, they’re also required to report gunshot injuries to law enforcement agencies, so this specific type of injury is already being recorded elsewhere. We just have to hope that efforts to collect better data will be put to good use, and not used in convoluted attempts to undermine our Constitutional rights.

IN THIS ARTICLE
United States Research Bias
TRENDING NOW
Trump’s DOJ Will Participate in Oral Arguments in Illinois Semi-Auto Ban Case

News  

Monday, September 15, 2025

Trump’s DOJ Will Participate in Oral Arguments in Illinois Semi-Auto Ban Case

Within six months of the landmark United States Supreme Court decision of NYSRPA v. Bruen (2022), Illinois disregarded the Court’s clear directives and enacted into law H.B. 5741, the Protect Illinois Communities Act (PICA). 

Armed Citizens: Not Just an American Concept

News  

Monday, September 15, 2025

Armed Citizens: Not Just an American Concept

We frequently post stories about law-abiding citizens who, by exercising their rights protected under the Second Amendment, bring an end to violent criminal assaults.  

New York Law Imperils U.S. Olympic Target Shooting, Favors China’s Dominance

News  

Monday, September 15, 2025

New York Law Imperils U.S. Olympic Target Shooting, Favors China’s Dominance

As U.S. shooting sports athletes prepare for the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles, New York law is burdening target shooters in the Empire State.

Third Circuit Strikes Some New Jersey Carry Restrictions in NRA Case

Thursday, September 11, 2025

Third Circuit Strikes Some New Jersey Carry Restrictions in NRA Case

Yesterday, the Third Circuit Court of Appeals issued an opinion in Siegel v. Platkin, striking some of the carry restrictions New Jersey enacted in response to the NRA’s landmark Supreme Court victory, New York State Rifle & ...

“Sensitive Places” Embolden Criminals and Threaten the Law-abiding

News  

Monday, September 15, 2025

“Sensitive Places” Embolden Criminals and Threaten the Law-abiding

A beyond horrific murder flashed before our eyes in recent weeks, and a nation collectively mourned Iryna Zarutska after the sickening attack that took her life on a public train in Charlotte, North Carolina

California: Legislature Adjourns with Anti-Gun Bills Headed to the Governor's Desk

Monday, September 15, 2025

California: Legislature Adjourns with Anti-Gun Bills Headed to the Governor's Desk

On Friday the California State Legislature adjourned the 2025 legislative session in typical California fashion, advancing anti-gun legislation to Governor Newsom's desk. Contact Governor Newsome today and urge his veto of AB 1078, AB 1127, AB ...

Gun Control “Journalist” Says the Quiet Part Out Loud

News  

Monday, September 8, 2025

Gun Control “Journalist” Says the Quiet Part Out Loud

Pure gun control. As in disarmament and banning of firearms. It’s rare that anti-gunners get straight to the exact point that we have been warning of for decades. 

Colorado: CSSA Files Suit Challenging "Polis Permission Slip" Permit-to-Purchase Law

Tuesday, September 9, 2025

Colorado: CSSA Files Suit Challenging "Polis Permission Slip" Permit-to-Purchase Law

Last week, the Colorado State Shooting Association (CSSA), the official state affiliate of NRA, filed a lawsuit challenging Senate Bill 25-003...

Minnesota: Senate Gun Violence Prevention Working Group Meeting on Monday

Friday, September 12, 2025

Minnesota: Senate Gun Violence Prevention Working Group Meeting on Monday

On Monday, September 15th, the Minnesota Senate will hold a special working group on "gun violence prevention."

The Desperate Deflection to the “Red State Murder Problem”

News  

Monday, September 8, 2025

The Desperate Deflection to the “Red State Murder Problem”

California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) may have thought he had scored against President Donald Trump in a recent war of words over rampant crime and the deployment of federal law enforcement agents to Democratic-led cities

MORE TRENDING +
LESS TRENDING -

More Like This From Around The NRA

NRA ILA

Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.