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Surprise: Study Finds No Rise in Violent Crime Attributable to Adopting Right-to-Carry Laws

Thursday, December 6, 2018

Surprise: Study Finds No Rise in Violent Crime Attributable to Adopting Right-to-Carry Laws

As we’ve noted recently, much research purporting to demonstrate connections between access to guns or right-to-carry laws and increases in crime is seriously flawed.  Often it's an attempt to curtail or eliminate Americans’ rights under the Second Amendment rather than unbiased scientific research.

One recent study bucked that trend, however, finding no evidence of a link between access to firearms and increases in crime. “State Level Firearm Concealed-Carry Legislation and Rates of Homicide and Other Violent Crime,” (Hamill, Hernandez, Bailey, Zielinski, Matos, & Schiller, 2018), examined an expansive dataset, encompassing all 50 states and the District of Columbia – from 1986 to 2015 – to determine whether a relationship existed between liberalization of access to legal concealed carry of firearms and rates of both violent and nonviolent crime.

The 30 years’ worth of crime data comprised state-level crime rates for homicides, violent crime, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, and burglary from the Department of Justice Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) system. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) provided partially redundant figures, including state-based rates of homicide overall and firearm-specific homicide. State-specific rates of unemployment were provided by the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics, and poverty rates were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Hamill et al. (2018) defined the ease with which state residents could obtain a carry permit in two ways:

  • On a four-point scale: (1) no carry; (2) may-issue; (3) shall-issue; or, (4) unrestricted (i.e., constitutional carry)
  • With a simpler, bipolar system which grouped the no-carry and may-issue schemes, versus the shall-issue and unrestricted arrangements

Using a form of linear regression modeling which allowed for multiple predictor and control variables as well as correlations among error terms (due to the time-based nature of the data), the authors estimated the various UCR and CDC crime statistics as a function of ease of obtaining carry permits, after controlling for state and year. No significant relationships were noted between ease of carry – whether measured on the four-point or bipolar scales – and rates of crime in any of the UCR or CDC categories. Repeating the analyses, but additionally controlling for level of poverty and unemployment, the Hamill team again found no statistical relationships between the ease with which carry permits could be obtained – regardless of measurement scheme – and crime rates in any category.

The authors concluded:

After adjusting for several population and demographic factors, we demonstrated that the rates of homicide and violent crime were not significantly increased after state laws were passed making access to concealed-carry permits less restricted. These important findings should inform further public policy research to help determine root causes and solutions to firearm-related homicide and violent crime in the future. (Hamill et al., 2018, p. 5)

As the authors noted, the study was correlational in nature and did not demonstrate causation (or lack thereof). Additionally, there were variables with potential explanatory power that were not included in the models, because the authors plan to do so “as a topic of future research” (Hamill et al., 2018, p. 7). Yet, however unlikely it may be that research such as this will convince many in the anti-gun crowd – whose minds seem closed to objective data which conflict with the “bad gun” narrative – it is refreshing to see objective minds investigate the association between guns and crime with the intent of letting the data write the story, rather than seeking evidence to buttress already-worn arguments.

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Trump’s DOJ Will Participate in Oral Arguments in Illinois Semi-Auto Ban Case

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Monday, September 15, 2025

Trump’s DOJ Will Participate in Oral Arguments in Illinois Semi-Auto Ban Case

Within six months of the landmark United States Supreme Court decision of NYSRPA v. Bruen (2022), Illinois disregarded the Court’s clear directives and enacted into law H.B. 5741, the Protect Illinois Communities Act (PICA). 

Armed Citizens: Not Just an American Concept

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Monday, September 15, 2025

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We frequently post stories about law-abiding citizens who, by exercising their rights protected under the Second Amendment, bring an end to violent criminal assaults.  

New York Law Imperils U.S. Olympic Target Shooting, Favors China’s Dominance

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Monday, September 15, 2025

New York Law Imperils U.S. Olympic Target Shooting, Favors China’s Dominance

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Third Circuit Strikes Some New Jersey Carry Restrictions in NRA Case

Thursday, September 11, 2025

Third Circuit Strikes Some New Jersey Carry Restrictions in NRA Case

Yesterday, the Third Circuit Court of Appeals issued an opinion in Siegel v. Platkin, striking some of the carry restrictions New Jersey enacted in response to the NRA’s landmark Supreme Court victory, New York State Rifle & ...

“Sensitive Places” Embolden Criminals and Threaten the Law-abiding

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Monday, September 15, 2025

“Sensitive Places” Embolden Criminals and Threaten the Law-abiding

A beyond horrific murder flashed before our eyes in recent weeks, and a nation collectively mourned Iryna Zarutska after the sickening attack that took her life on a public train in Charlotte, North Carolina

California: Legislature Adjourns with Anti-Gun Bills Headed to the Governor's Desk

Monday, September 15, 2025

California: Legislature Adjourns with Anti-Gun Bills Headed to the Governor's Desk

On Friday the California State Legislature adjourned the 2025 legislative session in typical California fashion, advancing anti-gun legislation to Governor Newsom's desk. Contact Governor Newsome today and urge his veto of AB 1078, AB 1127, AB ...

Gun Control “Journalist” Says the Quiet Part Out Loud

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Monday, September 8, 2025

Gun Control “Journalist” Says the Quiet Part Out Loud

Pure gun control. As in disarmament and banning of firearms. It’s rare that anti-gunners get straight to the exact point that we have been warning of for decades. 

Colorado: CSSA Files Suit Challenging "Polis Permission Slip" Permit-to-Purchase Law

Tuesday, September 9, 2025

Colorado: CSSA Files Suit Challenging "Polis Permission Slip" Permit-to-Purchase Law

Last week, the Colorado State Shooting Association (CSSA), the official state affiliate of NRA, filed a lawsuit challenging Senate Bill 25-003...

Minnesota: Senate Gun Violence Prevention Working Group Meeting on Monday

Friday, September 12, 2025

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Florida: Miami Beach City Commission Considering Anti-Gun Resolution Tomorrow

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

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NRA ILA

Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.