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Surprise: Study Finds No Rise in Violent Crime Attributable to Adopting Right-to-Carry Laws

Thursday, December 6, 2018

Surprise: Study Finds No Rise in Violent Crime Attributable to Adopting Right-to-Carry Laws

As we’ve noted recently, much research purporting to demonstrate connections between access to guns or right-to-carry laws and increases in crime is seriously flawed.  Often it's an attempt to curtail or eliminate Americans’ rights under the Second Amendment rather than unbiased scientific research.

One recent study bucked that trend, however, finding no evidence of a link between access to firearms and increases in crime. “State Level Firearm Concealed-Carry Legislation and Rates of Homicide and Other Violent Crime,” (Hamill, Hernandez, Bailey, Zielinski, Matos, & Schiller, 2018), examined an expansive dataset, encompassing all 50 states and the District of Columbia – from 1986 to 2015 – to determine whether a relationship existed between liberalization of access to legal concealed carry of firearms and rates of both violent and nonviolent crime.

The 30 years’ worth of crime data comprised state-level crime rates for homicides, violent crime, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, and burglary from the Department of Justice Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) system. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) provided partially redundant figures, including state-based rates of homicide overall and firearm-specific homicide. State-specific rates of unemployment were provided by the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics, and poverty rates were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Hamill et al. (2018) defined the ease with which state residents could obtain a carry permit in two ways:

  • On a four-point scale: (1) no carry; (2) may-issue; (3) shall-issue; or, (4) unrestricted (i.e., constitutional carry)
  • With a simpler, bipolar system which grouped the no-carry and may-issue schemes, versus the shall-issue and unrestricted arrangements

Using a form of linear regression modeling which allowed for multiple predictor and control variables as well as correlations among error terms (due to the time-based nature of the data), the authors estimated the various UCR and CDC crime statistics as a function of ease of obtaining carry permits, after controlling for state and year. No significant relationships were noted between ease of carry – whether measured on the four-point or bipolar scales – and rates of crime in any of the UCR or CDC categories. Repeating the analyses, but additionally controlling for level of poverty and unemployment, the Hamill team again found no statistical relationships between the ease with which carry permits could be obtained – regardless of measurement scheme – and crime rates in any category.

The authors concluded:

After adjusting for several population and demographic factors, we demonstrated that the rates of homicide and violent crime were not significantly increased after state laws were passed making access to concealed-carry permits less restricted. These important findings should inform further public policy research to help determine root causes and solutions to firearm-related homicide and violent crime in the future. (Hamill et al., 2018, p. 5)

As the authors noted, the study was correlational in nature and did not demonstrate causation (or lack thereof). Additionally, there were variables with potential explanatory power that were not included in the models, because the authors plan to do so “as a topic of future research” (Hamill et al., 2018, p. 7). Yet, however unlikely it may be that research such as this will convince many in the anti-gun crowd – whose minds seem closed to objective data which conflict with the “bad gun” narrative – it is refreshing to see objective minds investigate the association between guns and crime with the intent of letting the data write the story, rather than seeking evidence to buttress already-worn arguments.

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U.S. House Passes Reconciliation Bill, Removing Suppressors from the National Firearms Act

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Second Amendment  

Thursday, May 22, 2025

U.S. House Passes Reconciliation Bill, Removing Suppressors from the National Firearms Act

Earlier today, the U.S. House of Representatives passed H.R.1 the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which included Section 2 of the Hearing Protection Act, completely removing suppressors from the National Firearms Act (NFA).

U.K. Moves to Legally De-suppress Suppressors

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Monday, July 14, 2025

U.K. Moves to Legally De-suppress Suppressors

On July 4th, President Donald Trump signed into law his “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which included a provision that eliminated the tax stamp fee of $200, but did not deregulate suppressors under the National Firearms ...

Baltimore Gets Serious on Crime Control, and the Results Speak for Themselves

News  

Monday, July 14, 2025

Baltimore Gets Serious on Crime Control, and the Results Speak for Themselves

As the mid-year mark of 2025 hits, a promising report on crime trends has come out of the City of Baltimore. Surprising news at first glance until you dig deeper into the policy direction the ...

House Annual Appropriations Process Update

News  

Monday, July 14, 2025

House Annual Appropriations Process Update

As the House Appropriations Committee is putting together legislation to fund the government, NRA-ILA has worked closely with policy makers to ensure several long-standing priorities for gun owners were included in the underlying bills.

Legacy Media Finally Acknowledges Politization of Public Health

News  

Monday, July 14, 2025

Legacy Media Finally Acknowledges Politization of Public Health

It appears the editors of The Atlantic are finally willing to entertain an idea that has long been obvious to gun rights supporters.

NRA and 2A Allies Announce NFA Lawsuit

Monday, July 7, 2025

NRA and 2A Allies Announce NFA Lawsuit

Following the passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill”—which eliminates the National Firearms Act of 1934’s (NFA) excise tax on suppressors, short-barreled rifles, short-barreled shotguns, and AOWs—the National Rifle Association issued a joint statement along with the ...

Congress Passes the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” Now Headed to President Trump

News  

Thursday, July 3, 2025

Congress Passes the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” Now Headed to President Trump

Earlier today the U.S. House of Representatives passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” This bill contained a provision that would, among other things, eliminate the burdensome $200 excise tax imposed by federal law on suppressors, short-barreled firearms, ...

NRA-ILA July 2025 Litigation Update

Thursday, July 10, 2025

NRA-ILA July 2025 Litigation Update

In the second quarter of 2025, the National Rifle Association filed two cert petitions in the U.S. Supreme Court and five amicus briefs, while continuing to litigate dozens of ongoing lawsuits across the country.

DOJ Declines to Seek Supreme Court Review of Decision Striking Down Federal Laws Prohibiting FFLs From Selling Handguns to 18-to-20-Year-Olds

Thursday, July 10, 2025

DOJ Declines to Seek Supreme Court Review of Decision Striking Down Federal Laws Prohibiting FFLs From Selling Handguns to 18-to-20-Year-Olds

In Reese v. ATF, the Fifth Circuit held that 18 U.S.C. §§ 922(b)(1) and (c)(1)—which together forbid Federal Firearms Licensees from selling handguns to 18-to-20-year-olds—violate the Second Amendment.

Florida: Second Amendment Sales Tax Holiday Signed by Governor

Monday, July 7, 2025

Florida: Second Amendment Sales Tax Holiday Signed by Governor

Governor Ron DeSantis recently signed the Florida Budget for Fiscal Year 2025–2026, which includes a Second Amendment sales tax holiday from September 8 through December 31, 2025. The NRA is thankful for Governor DeSantis’ strong ...

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NRA ILA

Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.